Does Duke QB Riley Leonard Have an NFL Future?

Duke’s Riley Leonard is an interesting prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Let me begin by crediting Ken Becks (former First Round Mock draft evaluator) for sending out a Tweet on May 14, which put Leonard on my radar in the initial stages of my quarterback (QB) evaluations for this next draft class.

While Leonard isn’t showing the traits needed to become a starter on his 2022 game film, he’s showing he has what it takes in a backup NFL role.

I really liked how he took QB Drake Maye and North Carolina to the wire last season.

In fact, it’s the North Carolina game that catapulted him in my mind.

Leonard has good size and he is a strong competitor, which only adds to the intrigue.

…and the possibilities.

Deep ball

This is what struck me as Leonard’s top characteristic in my four-game study.

He is one of the very best deep-ball passers I’ve seen so far in this next draft class, and that counts for a lot in my book.

Leonard throws a really nice-looking deep touch pass, and he throws most of them that he attempts accurately.

This alone will garner him a lot of attention.

Surprisingly athletic

At first glance, Leonard looks like one of those throw-back pocket passer dinosaurs who can’t move.

…then he sidesteps an incoming pass rusher.

…he then takes off running like he means it for gains of 5-7-12 yards, and once even 74 yards against the Tarheels.

In today’s Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs’ QB) crazed dual-role league, being able to generate excitement and sell season tickets is almost a prerequisite to have a chance to make a roster.

This will be especially true if Leonard ends up on a team with one of these elite dual-role QBs as a starter.

Teams tend to want backups who stay consistent with their offensive scheme and personnel.

Leonard showing he has some wheels will undoubtedly serve him well.

While he’s not like a sports car or anything like that, he is more like the family minivan as a runner who can get into the end zone.

The most surprising stat: 13 TD’s on the ground in 2022.

What is holding him back from being starting material?

The number one question I ask myself when I’m projecting college prospects to the NFL is, “Does what I’m watching translate to success in the NFL?”

Riley has developmental upside (and his grade reflects that), but there are things that show up consistently that need real work.

In a word his mechanics need refinement.

– Inconsistent downfield ball placement

– Doesn’t always throw a tight spiral (some wobbly looking passes)

– Tendency to lock in with receivers

– Downfield ball security issues (opposing defenses touched the ball 15x in four games).

– Often inaccurate throwing outside the pocket

There’s a chance he could make it as a career NFL backup as the guys with the glitches are the ones who fill these roles.

The only big issue here (especially at QB) picking QBs is like getting married.

…for better or for worse

Because eventually somehow someway and at some point a team’s season could be in their hands.

If Leonard shows improvement in these outlined areas, it will raise his draft stock and his ceiling.

#13 Riley Leonard 6-foot-4, 212 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Spring 2023 Grade: Fourth-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 2.9% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of May 25, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Kansas, Wake Forest, Miami, and North Carolina (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

2022 stats: 250/391 (63.9%), 2967 yards, 20 TD, 6 INT, 16 sacks, long-81

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Throwback who stands tall in the pocket and has modern-day running ability. Has some Steve Pelluer, Dave Brown, and Jimmy Garoppolo in him. Leads with a methodical pace. Good play-action. Tends to stare down receivers and pat the ball pre-delivery. Slight stiffness shows up in his throwing motion. Left leg can lock up, causing increased arc and the ball sailing high or being overthrown. Likes to throw off-platform and side-arm. Excels throwing breakpoint routes and shallow crossings. Decent, but not great arm strength. Ball labors on straight-line intermediate routes outside the numbers. Good deep touch. Tough runner who takes what’s there.

What to watch for during the 2023 college football season

1. Can he duplicate last season?

2. Does he show improvement in his mechanics?

3. Ball security?

4. Does he stay healthy?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock and has written for Sports Illustrated Lions, Jets, and 49ers, as well as a featured guest on ESPN Radio and Fox Sports Radio. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.