NFL.com Fumbles on Predictions of 2023 First Round Draft Picks

There is nothing that’s more unfair to prospects in the NFL Draft than to overhype them.

Setting proper expectations based on extensive game film study is the not only the most fair thing to do to the prospects, but also to team fanbases.

Unmet expectations is what busts are made of.

It’s the responsibility of every draft platform to properly set those expectations.

As it is, the top rated players are going into many of the worst situations in the league, based on last season’s records. Already, there is a ton of pressure on rookies.

Add in over grading, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

Game film (that’s available for you to see by clicking the links) disagrees with the first-round grades NFL.com have handed out to the following 10 prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Seventh-Round

On game film Levis regressed from 2021 to 2022 game film despite Kentucky bringing in Kyle Shanahan’s QB Coach, Rich Scangarello, as their new Offensive Coordinator. Levis is tentative making decisions in the pocket and even worse, he doesn’t feel the pass rush. He has tunnel vision downfield and stares at receivers before throwing (big no-no in the NFL). On top of it, he has erratic downfield ball placement. Levis is 2021 first-round pick QB Zach Wilson all over again, only without Wilson’s mobility.

Levis hasn’t shown the skill-set on game film that translates to success in the NFL.

Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Fifth-round

Scores of Gators’ fans commented on social media saying they didn’t think Richardson was ready to declare for the NFL Draft when he declared. Along the lines of 2021 first-round pick QB Trey Lance, Richardson is an athlete first and a QB second. Inconsistencies are spray painted all over his game film, and nothing gets an NFL team beat faster than inconsistency out of the game’s most important position. Everyone is so excited about his “traits,” but traits must consistently show up on game film, and with Richardson they don’t. This is backed by his low 53.8% completion percentage last season.

That low completion percentage alone should scare the hell out of people, especially considering that was at the college level, and now he’ll be going up to an even higher level of competition in the NFL?

At best – – Richardson is Saints’ QB Taysom Hill 2.0.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Third-Round

The first clue Robinson has been over graded is that Iowa State’s RB Breece Hall (Jets) and Michigan State’s RB Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) were both valued by the league as second-round picks in last year’s draft, and both looked better than Robinson on game film. First-round picks need to show elite traits, and Robinson doesn’t. He’s good, but he’s not great. Robinson doesn’t show break-away speed and he’s not elusive in the open field. Shoddy tackling doesn’t count.

Robinson is a soft runner who takes what defenses give him.

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Third-Round

Where do I begin with Johnston?

Let’s start by looking at the colleges that recruited Johnston out of high school. Isn’t it ironic that he didn’t have one scholarship offer from one elite football program given his dominant size? Johnston is a text book example of a prospect with traits that don’t translate to consistent results on game film. The last thing a receiver his size should have trouble with is contested passes, but Johnston struggles in this area. Looking at game logs, he’s an up-and-down, hot-and-cold receiver throughout his college timeline with a 57% catch-rate to boot.

Johnston is also an undisciplined route runner.

Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Second-Round

It’s going to be tough for a prospect who often loses interest easily. Add in the fact he looks stiff (lacks bend) on game film and he ran a 4.69 (40-yard-dash) at the NFL Scouting Combine (first attempt), and this looks like a bust waiting to happen. What Anderson did earlier in his college career is irrelevant at this point. This isn’t Cowboys’ pass rusher Micah Parsons who ran a 4.36.

The most alarming thing on game film is Anderson’s lack of want.

Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Third-Round

Nothing on Hyatt’s game film excites me. Even after I got burned last year by the pure speed of receivers Christian Watson (NDSU) and Chris Olave (Ohio State), I still can’t bring myself to move Hyatt (4.40) into the first-round. I even went back and watched more film recently, and I couldn’t promote this Tennessee standout who reminds me way too much of free agent receiver, Chosen Anderson (formerly Robbie Anderson). Hyatt doesn’t run away from anyone at the short-to-intermediate route levels after making receptions and he struggles adjusting on contested deep passes.

Hyatt quits on routes when he’s not the intended receiver on a play.

Brian Branch, DB, Alabama

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Fourth-Round

It took 11 games before I saw first-round ability out of Branch, and he only did it in his last game against Kansas State because he wants to get paid. In the other 10 games I evaluated, he looked like a mediocre fourth-round nickel who shied away from contact.

Reluctance and hesitation are the last two words in the dictionary anybody wants to hear used to describe a defensive player, and Branch’s full body of work on game film is defined by those two words.

Branch looks small and he plays small.

Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Third-Round

Looks the part, but doesn’t play it. Got hung out to dry like clothes on a clothes line too often. Lacked bend and pass rush moves to win the edge. Plus, he’s soft as tissue paper 70% of the time on game film against the run.

A third-round grade respects the ability he does show, while mitigating the risk he put all over his game film.

Peter Skoronski, LT, Northwestern

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Third-Round

Whoever compares Skoronski to former Northwestern left tackle Rashawn Slater, never watched Slater.

There’s nothing about Skoronski’s body type that says tackle.

His lateral footwork in pass pro leaves a lot to be desired as well. This is where Skoronski’s lack of polish really shows up when he plain tries to outmuscle guys instead of relying on technique. This will not work against the elite pass rushers at the next level.

Skoronski additionally shows on game film he struggles against pass rushing games and stunts up front and NFL teams will test that too.

No question, Skoronski is one hell of a run blocker, who would make one hell of a guard.

He’s just not a left tackle in this league.

Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

FirstRoundMock.com Grade: Second-Round

The son of NFL linebacker Joey Porter, who looks the part, but the game film reveals some very real issues. The younger Porter lacks short-area burst, and he tends to get too out of control covering routes with sharp breakpoints. It also doesn’t help he’s susceptible to drawing flags because he gets too handsy trying to over compensate for those noted deficiencies.

Porter is not what any NFL team needs out of a corner in press-man coverage.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.