C.J. Stroud Big Play Machine

Ohio State quarterback (QB) C.J. Stroud has a big-league arm and a knack for making big plays.

That’s what the game film revealed and I have now studied every snap he took in 2022.

Stroud loves to aggressively attack the intermediate to deep route levels, and that not only has won games in college (21-4), but that kind of attack also wins in the NFL.

Research indicates this year’s Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and the Chiefs, ranked amongst the top teams in the league in terms of big plays.

That’s why he’s a top-five prospect in this year’s draft.

Stroud pushes the ball downfield hard

While evaluating the latest six games (embedded below), it stood out how much Stroud was stretching the field.

Statistics further support what game film revealed.

In 2022, Stroud was tied for the highest per-throw average in the NCAA (9.5 yards). In 2021, he was ranked second in the country (10.1 yards).

What’s the morale of the story?

Stroud doesn’t like to bog down drives with a bunch of short passes.

He likes to grab secondaries by the throat with that cannon he has for a right arm, and to see what they have for an answer.

Best pure passer in the draft

Whether Stroud is slinging the ball on a slant pattern or throwing a back-shoulder touchdown pass, he throws some real beauties.

He also showed he can fit the ball into some tight throwing windows at the intermediate route level.

Stroud often shows phenomenal downfield ball placement.

However, that depends on one thing…

Beat of the drum

Stroud is a rhythm QB.

His ball placement is on point when he establishes and stays in a rhythm.

It’s when he gets out of that rhythm is when the inconsistencies begin.

That’s when he locks in and doesn’t go through his progressions. That’s also when he holds the ball too long.

See Northwestern.

In that game, I didn’t like the look of fear and frustration I saw in his eyes.

Thrives within structure

Stroud is like a machine who’s at his best when his team has the lead and everything is going according to plan.

That’s when Stroud looks smooth.

It’s when things break down it becomes shaky.

There’s a noticeable difference.

Turn down the pressure

Like any machine, Stroud overheats under too much pressure.

That’s when he’s at his worst.

Stroud struggled under pressure from pass rushers – – or when he puts too much pressure on himself even under ideal circumstances when he tries to hard.

He was best when he went with the flow and his team had the lead.

Who’s on the clock?

Where there’s smoke there’s fire.

Rumors have been building that Minnesota could make a blockbuster trade with Arizona and move up to the No. 3 spot.

This would be the ideal landing spot for Stroud.

Going to a playoff-caliber team would give Stroud the structure and support he needs to reach his potential, and the move would give Minnesota their sure-fire franchise QB of the future if this were to happen.

#7 C.J. Stroud 6-foot-3, 218 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

First Round Mock Big Board: QB2 (Top-5)

Bust Probability: Moderate

Projected by 99.3% (down from 99.4% on March 28) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of April 27, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Previous articles:

Former NFL Scout Calls C.J. Stroud “Generational Talent”

C.J. Stroud Reminds Former NFL Scout of Warren Moon

10 Games Prove C.J. Stroud Will be a Superstar in the NFL

Previous 10 games evaluated:  (2021) Oregon, Michigan State, and Penn State (2022) Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan, Notre Dame, Maryland, and Georgia

Additional 2022 game film used for this evaluation: Indiana, Northwestern, MSU, Rutgers, Toledo, and Arkansas State

2021 stats: 317/441 (71.9%) 4,435 yards (avg. 10.1), 44 TD/6 INT, 13 sacks

2022 stats: 258/389 (66.3%) 3,688 yards (avg. 9.5), 41 TD/6 INT, 12 sacks

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Mature strong-armed franchise-level tools, but needs to be in control to achieve best results. Confidence and tempo he leads with depends on the circumstances. Throw back pocket passer. Processes quickly pre and post-snap. Smooth set up. Good ball-handling skills. Escapes pressure, but runs only out of necessity. Inconsistent going through his progressions. Tendency to pat the ball pre-delivery. Throws well at all three route levels.

Final words

In the words of my scouting mentor, “If you have a quarterback, you have a chance.”

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.