Why it’s not Fair to Draft Anthony Richardson in the First Round

Despite the mainstream NFL Draft Platforms consensus that Florida’s Anthony Richardson should be a first-round pick, it is not fair to him.

First Round Mock’s most recent projection has this Gators’ quarterback (QB) as a fifth-round value based on his performance in a 10-game film study (2021-2022).

Granted, it’s a QB league and the hype surrounding Richardson is driving the consensus into over-valuing Richardson.

The saddest part about over-grading a prospect is not being wrong, it’s the prospect being set up for certain failure.

Trey Lance

Daniel Kelly’s 2021 Trey Lance pre-draft scouting report

In 2021, a little known QB named Trey Lance out of North Dakota State University came out of nowhere in the months leading up the draft. The first time I looked at Lance in the fall of 2020, he reminded me of a “Poor man’s Donovan McNabb.”

However, that’s when this thing took on a life of its own.

Before you knew it, the 49ers’ traded three number one picks to move up to select Lance No. 3 overall.

With that came huge expectations, and his career has been plagued with under-performance and injuries since.

Had Lance been an undrafted free-agent as I was suggesting, who knows how this story would have gone.

Lance looked average against Central Arkansas, James Madison, the University of North Dakota, and Butler. How did anyone think he should go in the first round?

A lot of people did.

CBS, Draftwire, The Sporting News, Pro Football Network, SBNation, USA Today, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Focus, NFL.com, NBC Sports, The Draft Network, Yahoo Sports, ESPN, Athlon Sports, Fox Sports, 247 Sports, Bleacher Report and Barstool Sports all had Lance projected as a top-10 pick.

Zach Wilson

Daniel Kelly’s 2021 Zach Wilson pre-draft scouting report

In that same draft QB Zach Wilson (BYU) went one spot ahead of Lance at No. 2 overall by the New York Jets.

I had a third-round grade (high developmental upside) on Wilson.

The result has spelled disaster for Wilson and the Jets, as the team now pursues a 39-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers to replace him.

Expectations for a top-5 pick are insane to begin, but add in going to New York on top of it?

Fuhgeddabodit

Red flags were all over Wilson’s game film.

Wilson showed he lacked instincts for the position, his downfield ball placement was erratic, he threw 50-50 deep balls, and the only thing he excelled at was the unscripted stuff.

That was against a creampuff schedule.

Who dreamt he should go into the New York Jets as a top-5 pick?

A lot of people did.

CBS Sports, Draftwire, The Sporting News, Pro Football Network, NBC Sports, USA Today, SB Nation, Sports Illustrated, Pro Football Focus, NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, ESPN, Sporting News, Athlon Sports, Fox Sports, 247Sports, Bleacher Report, The Draft Network, Barstool Sports and The Spun, all projected Wilson pre-draft as the No. 2 pick overall to the Jets.

Had Wilson gone in the third round as his college game film was suggesting, it perhaps would a different outcome. He could have eased into the lineup without all the expectations, instead of his career now hanging by a thread.

Anthony Richardson

Daniel Kelly’s 2023 Anthony Richardson pre-draft scouting report

Richardson has an incredible highlight tape that will sell season tickets, but his full body of work leaves a lot to be desired.

This Florida QB is an athlete first and a QB second. In other words, his first instinct when things start breaking down is to take off and run.

He does not respond well to pressure, his downfield ball placement is erratic and he tends to throw a handful of dangerous passes in every game.

Plus, he has a tendency to hold the ball too long.

Richardson doesn’t stand a chance in a starting role. Even NFL coaches are saying he looks extremely raw.

Here we go again – – over 75% of NFL Draft Platforms are projecting Richardson as a first-round pick.

If we could temper the excitement by selecting him in the fifth round, which is where his game film values him, he could probably play in the league for 10 years and be a great Taysom Hill type of gadget player.

Richardson completed 53.8% of his passes at the college level last season.

Can you imagine what that number will translate to at an even higher level of competition in the NFL?

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.