Ezekiel Elliott is a Better Running Back than Bijan Robinson

While the rest of the free world thinks Longhorns’ Bijan Robinson is the best running back in the state of Texas right now, that’s not correct.

Former Cowboys’ running back Ezekiel Elliott would be the better choice.

What?

Robinson is a tough cutback runner with excellent vision, instincts, balance, toughness and determination, but there’s nothing special about him.

Robinson doesn’t show anything dominant or elite on the 10 games I’ve studied (2021-2022).

If a team wants a physical runner who only excels in the short to intermediate part of the field, but lacks breakaway home-run hitting speed and elusiveness, sign Elliott. He doesn’t cost a draft pick and he’s a more violent runner.

How has Robinson looked against top 10 college teams?

Before we get all excited about Robinson’s monster 243 yard and four touchdown performance against a 3-6 Kansas defense, l have one question to ask.

How did Robinson do against top-10 (the highest level of college competition) teams during his time at Texas?

2021:

No. 6 Oklahoma 20 carries, 137 yards, 1 touchdown, 50-long

2022:

No. 1 Alabama 21 carries, 57 yards, 1 touchdown, 18-long

No. 4 TCU 12 carries, 29 yards, 0 touchdowns, 9-long

40 years of watching the games best

I’ve seen them all; John Riggins, Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton, Curtis Martin, Tony Dorsett, Jerome Bettis, Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Adrian Peterson, and Barry Sanders.

I’ve seen all the ones I didn’t mention either, as well as highlights of the greats before my time.

Robinson just does not compare to any of them.

That’s not meant as disrespect, it means game film doesn’t support him as being viewed as a franchise back. Robinson is a solid No. 2 back in the NFL.

He’s a nice opportunistic back who takes what’s there to take and he goes down when he’s confronted with solid tackling.

Robinson runs high (easy target), he’s not going to make people miss and he will not outrun NFL defenses with his building playing speed (4.46 40-yard-dash time).

He’s also not running people over.

It’s a down year for running backs, but that’s no reason to catapult someone who doesn’t show elite characteristics on game film.

What is Robinson’s draft day value?

Early third round.

I evaluated running backs Breece Hall (No. 36) and Kenneth Walker III (No. 41) in the 2022 NFL Draft. Both looked better than Robinson, and they both went second round.

Hall was on his way to becoming Offensive Rookie of the Year prior to getting injured, and Walker led the Seahawks’ with 1,050 yards rushing.

I also liked what I saw of Georgia’s James Cook (Second-Round No. 63) on game film more than Robinson. He was a lot more of a violent and slashing runner. Cook could catch out of the backfield.

I believe Robinson will look average against NFL level defenses.

#5 Bijan Robinson 6-foot-0, 220 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: Third-Round (I would not select him)

Bust Probability: High

Projected by 93.3% (up from 90.0% on December 20) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of March 23, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Previous game film evaluated in prior articles: (2021): Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Arkansas (2022): Kansas State, Alabama, and Texas Tech

2022 game film viewed for this evaluation: Kansas, TCU, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State

Level of competition: High

2021 rushing stats: 195 carries for 1,127 yards (5.8 avg.), 11 TD, 62 long

2021 receiving stats: 26 receptions (33 targets and a 81% catch rate) 295 yards (11.3 avg.), 4 TD, 38 long

2022 rushing stats: 258 carries for 1,580 yards (6.1 avg.), 18TD, 78 long

2022 receiving stats: 19 receptions (32 targets and a 59% catch rate) 314 yards (16.5 avg.), 2 TD, 42 long

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Cutback runner who takes what defenses give him and shows above average playing speed. Has a nose for holes and has what it takes to exploit them. A selfless runner who runs to daylight. Gives it his all on every carry. Gets bottled up too often at or near the line of scrimmage. Needs good blocking. Not overly elusive. Lacks explosive second gear. Lacks power. Takes advantage of defensive letdowns. Picks up most yardage in the short to intermediate range. Willing to stick his nose in there on blitz pickup with average results. Decent receiver out of the backfield.

Final words

There’s nothing that excites me about him on game film.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.