Alarming Concerns Surface About Quentin Johnston

TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston played in the biggest game of his college football career against Georgia, in the National Championship Game (game film available here).

What happened?

TCU got destroyed 65-7 by Georgia.

What happened to Johnston, who is being projected by over 85% of NFL Draft platforms to be a first-round selection in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft?

He completely disappeared.

It was the biggest game for his school since 1938 (the last time TCU won a National Championship), and Johnston completely disappeared.

Johnston’s stat line: 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets.

Don’t big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games?

That’s the idea, but Johnston wasn’t able to get open when it mattered most.

What happened?

I went back and watched the game film, and what happened was Georgia got aggressive with Johnston.

This TCU 2023 NFL Draft prospect just could not shake the Bulldogs’ pass coverage scheme.

Georgia got physical with him, and he had nothing for a response.

Johnston couldn’t get separation and he bogged down when Georgia got physical with him.

Is this concerning?

I believe it’s a lot more concerning than anyone is talking about.

It feels like everyone just wants to sweep this under the rug and get Johnston mocked into the first round and get on with it.

Not so fast.

I never had Johnston mocked into the first round to begin with. In my previous articles, “There is One Big Problem with TCU Receiver Quentin Johnston,” and “Former NFL Scout Points Out Concerns About Quentin Johnston,” I had a second to third round grade on him.

There were too many inconsistencies in previous evaluations.

Now, after disappearing against Georgia, we are supposed to believe Johnston is going to have an easier time getting open in the NFL?

Does that make logical sense?

You had better believe every team in the NFL who lines up against Johnston is going to be aware of how Georgia shut him down, and the scouting report will get out there.

“Get physical with Johnston, get in his face, play press-man, and challenge the hell out of him.”

Wait this is a pattern?

It’s not just the Georgia game either.

He had four “big games” (over 100 yards receiving in a game) in 2022. Outside of that, he was held to four or fewer catches in 10 games during the season.

What happened in 2022?

Colorado 3 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD

Tarleton 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TD

SMU 3 catches, 29 yards, 0 TD

Oklahoma 4 catches, 41 yards, 0 TD

Texas 3 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD

Baylor 4 catches, 48 yards, 0 TD

What happened in 2021?

Duquesne 4 catches, 38 yards, 0 TD

Texas 3 catches, 37 yards, 0 TD

Kansas State 2 catches, 5 yards, 0 TD

Oklahoma State 2 catches, -3 yards, 0 TD

What happened in 2020?

Iowa State 2 catches, 50 yards, 1 TD

Oklahoma 4 catches, 40 yards, 0 TD

Baylor 3 catches, 64 yards, 0 TD

Texas Tech 1 catch, 1 yard, 0 TD

West Virginia 1 catch, 15 yards, 0 TD

That’s 15 games in the past three seasons in addition to the Georgia National Championship Game when Johnston turned in a flat performance.

There are more concerns?

Believe it or not – – yes.

In three years at TCU Johnston has caught 115 passes on 201 targets (57% catch rate).

Bottom line

The numbers don’t lie.

What are the numbers telling us?

Johnston has an established pattern of being an up-and-down receiver and he only catches about half of the passes thrown in his direction.

From a value standpoint, Johnston is a risky third-round pick.

The third round is a round where teams take talented prospects with high developmental upside. The third-round recognizes his high-level raw size and athleticism that stands out on game film while mitigating the illustrated risks.

The huge concern now becomes how this background translates going up to an even higher level of competition against NFL secondaries?

I personally don’t see this pattern improving. If anything, it has a good chance of becoming an even greater problem due to the level of competition becoming more difficult.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.