12 Games Prove Bryce Young is 2023 NFL Draft QB1

Alabama’s Bryce Young made a huge jump on game film from 2021 to 2022.

In fact, it’s the biggest jump I’ve ever seen in a quarterback (QB) since I started evaluating back in 1992.

The extreme difference can be seen in the title of my two previous articles. The first was based on a three-game study in 2021, and the second was written after evaluating four games in 2022.

What changed?

Young went from looking jittery in the pocket to looking in command.

He also went from needing large throwing windows to complete passes to producing game film where his ball placement was much more on point.

What do the most five recent games studied in 2022 show?

Consistency.

What he did against Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas, and LSU – – he did in these most recent five games studied this season as well.

Young looks the same game in and game out, and that’s a big part of being able to quickly turn around an NFL team.

Why suddenly is Young QB1?

Elevating Young to QB1 is a change on the First Round Mock Value Board. Up until now, Ohio State’s QB C.J. Stroud has held that spot since late August.

Three things tipped the scale:

1. Young’s proven ability to extend and create plays on his feet, which includes his ability to pick up huge chunks of yardage running. Young is a true dual-threat and possesses a better ability to compensate for offensive line deficiencies.

2. I liked how Young brought his team back from behind against Ole Miss in 2022. He looked like the same QB regardless of the score.

3. I like Young’s intangibles better. The position comes more naturally to him. He shows a sixth sense of what to do and where to throw the ball.

It’s for these reasons I believe Young gives a struggling franchise a better chance at winning now.

Looked even better down the stretch

One of the things that stood out to me this time around was Young looked even more confident than the last time I evaluated him, which is a good sign since three out of five of these games I just looked at were late in the season (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Kansas State).

There has been a progression in all three studies, reflected in all of my articles.

What about his size?

At the NFL Scouting Combine, Young measured 5-foot-10 1/8, 204 pounds.

I’m not concerned about his size, as I feel some of these “scouting boxes” may be becoming outdated.

Young hasn’t shown any issues facing big defensive linemen in college. I can’t imagine it becoming an issue going forward.

If anything, I’m more concerned about the NFL defenses Young will face rather than his size.

One Mississippi…

Two Mississippi…

Three Mississippi…

Four Mississippi…

Five Mississippi…

That’s a long time for any cornerback in the league to have to cover a receiver.

#9 Bryce Young

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: First-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 99.7% (down from 99.8% on December 30) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of March 29, 2022 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

First Round Mock Big Board: Top-3

Level of Competition: High

Previous seven games evaluated: (2021) Florida, Ole Miss, and Cincinnati (2022): Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas, and LSU

Additional 2022 game film used for this evaluation: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Utah State, Auburn, and Kansas State

Level of competition: High

2021 stats: 366/547 (66.9%) 4,872 yards (8.9 avg.), 47 TD, 7 INT., 39 sacks

2022 stats: 230/359 (64.1%) 3,007 yards (8.4 avg.), 27 TD, 5 INT., 16 sacks

Note: Won 2021 Heisman Trophy

Injury Note: Shoulder injury limited him during the 2022 season

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Instinctual playmaking dual threat who plays smart with a good arm. Convincing play-action option look and appears sure of himself setting up in the pocket. Goes through his progressions. Capable of making quick throwing decisions. Looks like Houdini bailing out from pressure. Poised. He will stare down the barrel of a pass rusher in his face and fire. Excels at all three route levels (short, medium, and deep). Decent downfield ball placement. Can lace it into a crowd between two or three defenders. Puts the ball where only his receivers have a chance. Excellent job of dictating to defenses with a knack for finding vulnerabilities in coverage. Nifty runner with elusiveness and he knows when to slide.

Final words

A modern-day Fran Tarkenton, the Vikings’ Hall of Fame QB.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.