Draft Stock of QB Tanner McKee Gets Sacked

Stanford had a rough year going 3-9, and Tanner McKee went down with the ship.

McKee, who has declared for the 2023 NFL Draft, was their quarterback (QB), and as much as I liked him on his 2021 game film, I could not keep him slotted in the first-round based on what he showed this past season.

In September, I wrote an article, “Tanner McKee Reminds Former NFL Scout of Mac Jones,” based on his impressive downfield ball placement being on point.

However, that ball placement didn’t look as good this past season.

It was decent, but not as good, which was also reflected in his drop off in completion percentage from 65.4% to 62.0%.

Uncomfortable

If I was sitting in a teams’ pre-draft meeting room, and it came my turn to talk about McKee, this is the one word I would use to describe what he looked like on game film in 2022.

Stanford went to a Run Pass Option (RPO) offense this season, that he never warmed up to. The television announcer said this was done to pick up the pace, but it didn’t click.

All it did was cause McKee to look more unsure, hold the ball longer in the pocket, get passes batted down at the line of scrimmage and by corners downfield. It additionally threw off his timing. Not only did his completion percentage fall off, but he took more sacks as well.

In 2021, McKee was sacked 24 times, and in 2022, that number spiked up to 40 times. He ate 20 of these sacks (and the yardage losses) in the four embedded games below.

The big concern

Despite the lack of Stanford talent, McKee didn’t show he had what it took to take over a game, as a superstar signal caller would. Great QB’s make everyone better around them no matter the circumstances.

Once the games started getting away from Stanford this past season, they got away from McKee too.

This is a real concern if McKee goes to an NFL team with a losing record. While he never quit, if the game went downhill, so did his performance.

He didn’t rise to the occasion.

McKee looked downright overwhelmed at times (see first quarter of the Washington game).

The crazy thing about all of this is Stanford had an identical 3-9 record in 2021, back when McKee looked more poised and his ball placement was much better.

McKee took a step back in 2022.

Franchise QB vs. developmental prospect

A franchise QB needs to be a “plug-and-play,” pro-ready prospect. While a developmental QB has tools he has shown on game film, but he needs work.

If he develops, he can turn into something, but at least taking a developmental QB in the third round helps to mitigate the risk.

I really like McKee’s downfield ball placement when he’s on his game.

Will he bounce back?

Sure, it’s possible and the odds are even better if he goes to a playoff-caliber team with a good offensive line.

If that happens, he will prove to be a steal.

#18 Tanner McKee 6-foot-6, 230 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: Third-Round (I would select him)

First Round Mock Big Board: TBD

Projected by 6.3% (down from 11.6% on September 1) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of January 20, 2023 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2022 game film reviewed: Washington, ASU, USC, and Oregon (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Level of competition: High

2021 stats: 206/315 (65.4%) 2,327 yards (7.4 avg.), 15 TD, 7 INT.

2022 stats: 264/426 (62.0%) 2,947 yards (6.9 avg.), 13 TD, 8 INT.

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Tall pocket passer with good arm strength and a decline in accurate downfield ball placement. Operates out of shotgun and showed decent ball handling in the pocket. Inconsistent going through progressions. Tends to lock in with receivers. Doesn’t tend to throw it away under pressure. Flashes incredible ball placement, even into tight coverage, but then reverts to too-high placement and overthrows at all three route levels. Limited mobility, but good on designed roll-outs. Not accurate when he’s flushed out. Has developmental upside, but the name of the game in the NFL is a quick release.

Final words

McKee would have benefitted from transferring to a school that featured a classic drop-back offense to re-prove himself.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.