Bijan Robinson is No Saquon Barkley

Texas’ Bijan Robinson is good, but he is not elite.

The popular narrative out there is drawing comparisons between these two running backs, between Robinson and Giants’ star running back Saquon Barkley, but let’s not get carried away.

I’m not trying to take anything away from this Texas running back, who recently declared for the 2023 NFL Draft. He’s good in his own right, but he is not Barkley.

Just because Robinson is a dual-threat like Barkley and can pick up the blitz, does not make them the same.

Barkley runs with more authority, energy and brute physicality. The Giants’ featured back carries the ball with a lot more attitude and he has more get up and go.

The concern with Robinson

He has trouble creating

What do I mean by that?

Robinson has excellent vision, balance, instincts, toughness, determination and he does a tremendous job running to daylight.

He is a patient and well disciplined runner who follows his blocks, and he takes whatever is there and whatever the defense gives him.

However, he lacks any elite traits that allows backs to create yardage.

Robinson will need to go to a top team with a good offensive line to find a lot of success in the NFL.

If he goes to a team with a losing record, his bust rate increases dramatically.

Why?

Robinson lacks top shelf speed, that coveted second gear and he is not elusive enough

I didn’t say he wasn’t tough and I didn’t say he can’t overcome the first tackler out of shear will, but he is not out there dancing around like Barry Sanders.

Outside of the few inside the park home runs he hit (because they were there for the taking), there was a lot of “three yards and a cloud of dust” runs going on.

He has building speed that didn’t serve him well in the 27 times (in my notes) during this three-game study he was tackled at or near the line of scrimmage.

What is Robinson?

He’s not Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker III (I put first-round grades on both of these running backs 2022 pre-draft).

Robinson is a shifty and determined runner who takes everything that is there to take.

He is excellent at blitz pickup and he is a threat out of the backfield as a receiver with good hands.

This Texas back is just not a game-changing franchise back. He bogs down too much around the line of scrimmage, he lacks the juice to own the edge, and there will be only more defensive speed in the NFL.

Robinson is like a sports-car with a four-cylinder engine

Back in September, I wrote, “Longhorns’ Bijan Robinson Isn’t A NFL Franchise Back,” based on his 2021 game film.

He didn’t put anything on his 2022 game film to change my mind.

#5 Bijan Robinson 6-foot-0, 220 pounds

Daniel Kelly’s Final 2023 NFL Draft Grade: Second-Round (I would select him)

Projected by 90% (down from 90.4% on September 22) of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of December 20, 2022 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

Bust Probability: Medium

2022 game film reviewed: Kansas State, Alabama and Texas Tech (click to view games watched to form this evaluation)

Level of competition: High

2021 rushing stats: 195 carries for 1,127 yards (5.8 avg.), 11 TD, 62 long

2021 receiving stats: 26 receptions (33 targets and a 81% catch rate) 295 yards (11.3 avg.), 4 TD, 38 long

2022 rushing stats: 258 carries for 1,580 yards (6.1 avg.), 18TD, 78 long

2022 receiving stats: 19 receptions (32 targets and a 59% catch rate) 314 yards (16.5 avg.), 2 TD, 42 long

NFL comparable: D’Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report:

Athletic compact squatty build with thick thighs and broad upper body. One gear building speed. Tough, disciplined, determined, patient runner with excellent vision and instincts who does well following his blocks and taking what is there. Gives good effort while maintaining balance to overcome the first defender. Flashes stiff-arm. Inconsistent winning the edge. Much better north-south runner than east-west. Can catch out of the backfield and dangerous in space. Can run intermediate level routes. Excellent at blitz pickup (18 times in my notes). Ideal No. 2 back with an established star in front of him.

Final words

After watching six of Robinson’s games over a two year period of time, I am not understanding what all the hype is about.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.