Pump The Brakes On These 5 NFL Draft Prospects

Historically, 53% of first-rounders in the NFL Draft end up being busts.

Yet, we see the same “consensus” amongst major media platforms every year.

There are all these “can’t miss generational talents,” and the next Joe Montana, Lawrence Taylor, and Randy Moss.

This year is no exception.

As a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets, I have identified five consensus national media top-rated 2023 NFL Draft prospects that the game film says we should pump the brakes on.

All of my takes are based on provided game film study, and all the links to the games I have studied are in each of these supporting article links.

NFL teams would be wise to not ignore what these prospects have put on their football resumes.

1. Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama

In the eyes of the NFL Draft Community, Young is about as close to a slam-dunk top-five pick as we’ve seen.

What does the game film say?

It says that Young is an “Game manager with mobility and he does not have an NFL arm.”

The thing that was ultra concerning to me is how uncomfortable he looked in the pocket.

I evaluated Mac Jones coming out of Alabama. Jones was my 2021 documented pre-draft QB2. Jones showed pinpoint downfield ball placement and it looked like he was born to play under the brightest of lights.

That does not remotely describe Young.

The other huge concern – – Young needed huge throwing windows to find success passing downfield.

Those don’t exist in the NFL.

First Round Mock Grade: 7th Round

NFL comparable: Vince Evans

2. Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky

Levis is this year’s, Kenny Pickett.

However, Levis’ stock in the eyes of the NFL Draft Community has taken off like a rocket.

His game film disagrees.

My opening remarks on him were, “Well-schooled and athletic with good arm strength, but raw looking as a downfield passer.”

The problem is he threw an elementary-looking route tree, he was inconsistent going through his progressions and his downfield ball placement wasn’t what it needs to be.

Levis was best throwing to the intermediate route level and his deep game left a lot to be desired.

First Round Mock Grade: 5th Round

NFL comparable: Heath Shuler

3. Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida Gators

I was surprised at how many Gators fans agreed with my article and evaluation of Richardson, “Former NFL Scout Says Anthony Richardson Looks Like A Bust.”

He’s got a legit NFL arm, but his downfield ball placement is all over the road.

Not only that, but it takes him too long to process what he is seeing downfield before he throws.

The game film says Richardson will be an interception machine in the NFL – – and an athlete who will be a real project.

First Round Mock Grade: 7th Round

NFL comparable: Anthony Wright

4. Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama

The first red flag is his sack production has slipped this year going from 17.5 sacks in 2021 to 10.0 sacks this season.

That’s not the real issue, however.

Out of the three games I evaluated off of his 2021 game film (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Georgia) he didn’t even show up on game film until the Georgia game.

Is he a guy who only shows up for big games and big moments?

That’s what the game film says.

Granted, even I agree he has pure first-round ability. He is a bully with brute power and quick hands, but he struggles making quick adjustments in the pocket, and he didn’t show much in the way of having pass rush moves.

If I was an NFL GM, he would not be top 10 on my board.

First Round Mock Grade: 1st Round

5. Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU

Just like the NFL Draft Community ignored Kenny Pickett’s stats at Pitt from 2017-2020, I feel like we are seeing the same thing with Johnston.

From 2020 until Sept. 27, 2022, Johnson caught 52% of the passes thrown in his direction.

The first thought I had watching him play was Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, the former first-round pick of the Ravens who was traded this past off-season to the Cardinals because despite his ability, “he couldn’t catch on” with Baltimore.

In other words, he dropped too many passes.

I can’t get past the fact he lacks elite football speed and an elite catch-radius.

First Round Mock Grade: 2nd Round

NFL Comparable: Michael Westbrook

Keep an eye out for these five prospects, and turn on the game film.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.