Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong Is A First-Round NFL Prospect

Virginia Cavaliers’ Brennan Armstrong has developed into a first-round prospect for the 2023 NFL Draft.

The senior quarterback (QB) has shown signs of improvement in a couple of important categories over the past two seasons.

Armstrong’s completion percentage jumped from 58.6% (2020) to 65.2% (2021), and his completion average increased from 7.9 yards (2020) up to 8.9 yards per-completion (2021).

What do these increases mean for Armstrong?

It means he has become more efficient, while becoming even more aggressive driving the ball downfield.

This is a good combination, and those improvements have caused his name to sneak into the first-round discussion among a few high profile NFL Draft platforms.

Armstrong graded out as the No. 26 pick overall by 247Sports and No. 31 overall by Bleacher Report at the end of April. He was projected at No. 32 overall at the beginning of May by Cleveland.com. Pro Football Focus additionally has a high assessment of Armstrong.

Go deep

Armstrong can get it deep, and I love how downfield minded he is.

His focus is pushing the ball downfield, and he is one of the better deep ball college passers I have seen in recent years.

There is a premium put on that in the NFL.

A lot of these QB prospects are good (even great) in the short to intermediate route levels, but they struggle, or are too inconsistent deep.

Not Armstrong.

Armstrong showed a better deep ball on 2021 game film than Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler and Stanford’s Tanner McKee.

Armstrong’s deep ball separates him, and it could peak the interest of a team like the Rams towards the bottom of the first round. QB Matthew Stafford isn’t getting any younger (34), the Rams love the long-ball, and they need to solidify their back-up spot.

Putting Armstrong in perspective at Virginia

Armstrong is about to break some of QB Matt Schaub’s school records at Virginia. Entering the 2022 college football season, the southpaw only needs 679 yards through the air and six touchdowns to surpass Schaub and become the school’s all-time passing yardage and touchdown leader.

Schaub went on from Virginia to a 17-year NFL career, after being selected in the third-round of the 2004 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons.

Armstrong’s career at Virginia and his ability on game film has also caught the attention of the Reece’s Senior Bowl Executive Director Jim Nagy.

#5 Brennan Armstrong 6-foot-2, 210 pounds

Daniel Kelly Grade: First-Round (late) Early Fall 2022 Report

FIRST ROUND MOCK BIG BOARD: QB4

Projected by 3.6% of the NFL Draft Community to be a first-round pick as of September 2, 2022 (nflmockdraftdatabase.com)

2021 game film reviewed: Illinois, Miami and North Carolina (click to watch games viewed to form this evaluation)

Level of competition: High

2021 stats: 326/500 (65.2%) 4,449 yards (8.9 avg.), 31 TD, 10 INT.

NFL Comparable: Stan Humphries and Rich Gannon

2023 NFL Draft Scouting Report:

Well-rounded athletic leftie who excels at all three route levels and brings a smooth and consistent upbeat tempo. The offense feels fluid with this gunslinger at the helm. Good ball handling skills and his head moves around going through his progressions. Poised in the pocket, but does have the tendency to hold to the ball too long (31 sacks in 2021). Mobile to slide around and roll out (3.7 yard career rushing avg.). Downfield minded with a strong arm that can zip it into tight windows, but also can throw touch finesse passes. Decisive delivery and looks like he knows where he is going with the ball. Excels at all three route levels (short, intermediate and deep). He aggressively attacks in the intermediate and deep ranges. Slings it across the middle and on the perimeters. Can make all the throws, but can throw risky passes occasionally (10 INT). Mostly good placement, but it can sail high on him at times. Keeps fighting back when he is down (NC). Intriguing prospect.

What to watch for during the 2022 college football season:

1. Can he get rid of the ball faster in the pocket?
2. Can he cut down on taking so many sacks and throw it away instead?
3. Does he cut down on throwing risky passes?
4. Does he continue to show improvement in his completion percentage and average-yards-per-completion?

Armstrong is flying low on a lot of radars right now, but not mine. Expect to hear his name more and more the closer we get to the 2023 NFL Draft.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He currently writes for Sports Illustrated New York Jets and he is the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock. For more information about him visit his website at whateverittakesbook.com. He can be followed on Twitter @firstroundmock.